In the week before Christmas, investors are unlikely to rush into decisions: All important information has already been received and only the finishing touches are left.
The Bank of Japan will hold its last meeting of the year and decide on the interest rate. It is likely to remain negative at -0.1% p.a. It is unlikely that the regulator will give new guidance on monetary policy formulation and without changes to the monetary policy framework the JPY exchange rate will remain under local pressure.
The US will publish statistics on the real estate market. The data is a good indicator of whether consumers are prepared to spend more. There is a good chance of a reduction in new home starts in November. The final calculation of US GDP for Q3 will also be released. The economy is expected to have grown by 2.9% – this is neutral for the USD.
The UK will release the final GDP calculation for Q3 2022 – it is possible that the economy has sagged by 0.2%, as preliminary observations have shown. Thursday will see the Bank of England’s quarterly report on the economy and this will prove interesting for GBP. A slight appreciation is possible.
Minutes from the previous Reserve Bank of Australia meeting will be released where we will be interested in signals about further rate hikes. Monetary policy is likely to gradually tighten further. For the AUD exchange rate, the continued transparency of the RBA’s decision-making pattern is a positive and supportive signal.
China is preparing to publish its leading indicators and foreign direct investment data. Confident reports will support risk-linked assets. The investment world is looking forward to a solid economic recovery in China.